What I think will happen

El Corton

October 26, 2006

1. Novell's motion for a preliminary injunction is effectively denied. No surprise there; the motion had no chance of being granted, and briefing it further would be a waste of time. That should come as no disappointment to those who hope for a judicial resolution of the any of the strategic issues affecting Linux.

2. The deadline of March 14 for dispositive motions in Novell is quite aggressive, considering all that has to happen before then. By then, the arbitration panel will have ruled against SCO, and the issues that were stayed pending arbitration will be ripe for summary judgment, including all those that impinge on the IBM case.

3. The IBM trial will be rescheduled to early 2008. This will occasion much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but for no good reason, because SCO gains nothing by it. The trial will never take place, or at most will be a formality. There will be nothing of importance for a jury to decide, even if SCO is still on the bricks.

4. Kimball will rule first on the PSJ motions in IBM that don't overlap Novell. Those include, at a minimum, CC 8 [784]. I expect SCO to win this; quite possibly, SCO's PSJ motion will be granted. I don't see where IBM has created a disputed fact as to whether SCO breached the GPL. This motion is a crowd-pleaser, not one that IBM really cares about or expects to win. IBM's motion on the interference claims [783] could also be decided early. IBM will win that one.

5. Rulings on the other PSJ motions in IBM will be deferred until the Novell PSJ motions are decided. If the Novell schedule doesn't slip by more than a couple of months, everything could be wrapped up by the fall. If SCO management is still in control by then, as is likely, the judgments will be taken to interlocutory appeal. The appeals will still be pending when SCO goes bankrupt. They will never be heard.

6. Another visit from the PIPE fairy could negate some of item 5.

7. More speculatively, sometime in 2008 IBM will sue Microsoft and perhaps Sun for malicious prosecution, or something similar. It could also pursue Microsoft under the Sherman Act. Some high-net-worth individuals might also be named as parties. Microsoft will settle this action on undisclosed terms.

11:34:00 PM

Source: Investor Village SCO Board [ http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1911, https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1911&mn=10089&pt=msg&mid=702623 ]

Copyright 2006