Is settlement imminent?


July 19, 2006

After reading the new "How can we know what they stolen? We have no clue what we have". filing by SCO, I started thinking for the first time that a settlement is possible. In fact possibly imminent.

SCO simply has no other way of avoiding justice. Suing everybody and his dog and then after three years admitting they actually have no clue what had been stolen from them is no way to win any lawsuit. The conterclaims will kill SCO for sure.

The only problem for SCO management is whom and what to sacrifice to save at least something (including their freedom). However, if they don't decide quickly, the company will be history and the management will be supported by the federal government.

The subject may be a trademark (tm)  by DDT. Or not.
< EOM >

1:30:46 PM

Is settlement imminent?


July 19, 2006

(IBM steals Unix code, and Loons steal my subject lines! IBM and Loons are made for each other.)

The question is how long can IBM hold on? IBM will look bad if the emails to Linux developers become public. Better settle before then. What is a billion or two to IBM? Make this go away. Save face.

< EOM >

1:41:51 PM

Re: Is settlement imminent? SCOX can't afford it...


July 19, 2006

>>SCO simply has no other way of avoiding justice.

At this point, any settlement effort by SCOX management to save their worthless hides would bring down a whole new set of legal bombardment from the shareholders for deluding them as to the likelihood of success in the IBM, AutoZone, Daimler, &c suits. And very likely leave the senior management (this means *YOU*, McBride) liable for charges of fraud, stock manipulation and so on for the PR pumping.

So the SCOX suits are probably looking at a perp walk in their future regardless. So they'll throw money at the existing suits and try to get out of it with as much of their skins as the Nazgul allow, rather than face the death-of-a-thousand-shareholder-suits they'd get trying to escape.

< EOM >

1:43:07 PM 

SCOX can't afford settlement


July 19, 2006

The pending lawsuits other than SCO v. IBM are interesting, but I ignore them for this comment.

That leaves two settlements to consider. SCO v. IBM is one. The other is post-judgment criminal proceedings. Settlement of the second inhibits settlement of the first.

Shareholder lawsuits, post- SCO v. IBM, will spring up like mushrooms. A collateral consequence is that people with lots of money that have quietly donated to political causes for years will now sharply complain to those political contacts about their SCO stock losses. Some Federal District Attorney will go after this, as a sop.

Please remember the Rules on snitches:

1) Nobody wins
2) First one to the courthouse and the D.A.'s office, gets off with the lightest punishments
3) There is no second place - you never want to hear "thanks, but we already have that", because it means you are not first

The more powerful your snitching, the better off you will be. Recording candid conversations as part of an ongoing investigation will get you the most points. This is *better* than a videotaped confession to a police officer.

Therefore, settlement of the criminal proceedings will probably preclude settlement of SCO v. IBM.

Otherwise, if there are no criminal proceedings to forestall, then there is the business decision by IBM.

IBM will settle. They are a business. If Bill Gates publicly announces that he will pay IBM $10 billion to settle with SCO, it will happen. The shareholders would shoot Palmisano for refusing.

Less than that, however, might be a problem.

I estimate the PR value of IBM crushing SCO in this suit to be $500,000,000. Between the "chatter" value of having IBM's name constantly in the news, and the positive spin IBM is getting out of being the guys in the white hats, there is huge advertising value. I cannot imagine any possible ad campaign that could match it. I believe that IBM has pretty much made up all the bad PR it might have had lingering from the 1970's anti-trust problems, from this case alone.

If all the board members, president, and vice-presidents of SCO throw all the company assets on the table, along with all their personal assets, it will still not match the PR value of IBM watching SCO be destroyed.

From that magnitude of results, IBM probably makes up the entire value of SCO every three months.

The people at IBM are still human. Sam Palmisano was not intimidated by being deposed. That was the worst SCO could do to him, and he has weathered it. Now, Mr. Stowell has intimated that IBM and its managers have committed felony destruction of evidence, and have dishonestly lied about it.

True or not, they should not have said it in a press release. Whatever chance of settlement they might have had is now completely gone.

After that statement, I know this is most true: "The SCO Group" will never settle.
AllParadox - Retired Attorney, no legal opinons, just my opinion.
< EOM >

2:41:43 PM

Source: Investor Village SCO Board [ ]

Copyright 2006